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The Fed Fueled Bull Market in Stocks

The Fed Fueled Bull Market in Stocks
  • The Fed’s Coverage of Perpetual Bull Market
  • $DIA, $GLD, $SLV

On this longest Bull market on report, do you see what I see in the Bear’s Eye View chart under? 

The Dow Jones’ final BEV Zero (final all-time excessive) was on October third; and for the primary time since October third the Dow Jones broke down under its BEV -10% line.  It goes with out saying, as I’m positive the bulls can be completely happy to level out to you, that the Dow Jones might reverse path this week and see a number of extra BEV Zeros in the chart under earlier than the New Yr.

The bulls might be proper about that.  Nonetheless, I feel it’s necessary to level out to my readers that as of the shut of this week the Dow Jones has been trending the mistaken means for over two months now, and now on a double-digit proportion foundation. 

Nonetheless one can’t argue with success; since January 1982 the Dow Jones has seen its strongest interval of “growth” (inflationary enlargement) in its historical past.  Take a look at the frequency distribution desk I positioned in the BEV chart.  I highlighted the BEV Zero (Zero%) and -Zero.0001% rows.  The BEV Zero row accommodates every new every day all-time excessive, and the -Zero.0001% row each day by day closing only a fraction brief a brand new all-time excessive right down to -Four.999% from one.  Collectively these two rows include 49.69% of the 9,320 day by day closings for the Dow Jones since January 1982.   Statistically talking, this implies each different every day closing in the previous thirty-seven years the Dow Jones was at, or inside 5% of creating a brand new all-time excessive.

To place that into historic context, under are three frequency distribution tables analyzing day by day Dow Jones BEV knowledge going again to February 1885 seen in the next Dow Jones Bear’s Eye View chart.

The far left desk under spans 1885 to the shut of at this time.  Once more, wanting on the desk’s BEV Zero and -Zero.0001% rows, the Dow Jones closed at or inside 5% of a BEV Zero in solely 25.19% of its 36,681 every day closings of the previous 134 years. 

This span of time extends again to when steam locomotives have been the recent high-tech sector thus far when social media corporations are; when the Dow Jones valuation elevated from 39.07 on 16 February 1885 to 26,838.39 on 03 October 2018.  That’s a achieve of 68,126%, a 687 fold improve that might not have been potential had the Federal Reserve not been as dedicated to “economic growth” because it has all the time confirmed to be.

The subsequent desk of the three is from February 1885 to August 1982, the month and yr the inventory market started a perpetual bull market that many “market experts” consider continues immediately.  For these ninety-seven years the Dow Jones closed at or inside 5% of a BEV Zero in solely 16.75% of the 27,523 day by day closings.

It ought to be famous from 1966 to August 1982, the Dow Jones had on 5 events risen above 1000, however then failed to remain above 1000 with vital ache inflicted on buyers from the next 5 market declines.  Market psychology in August 1982 was such that any time the Dow Jones broke above 1000, the sensible cash was going to brief the market or get severely spanked by Mr Bear.

On 16 December 1982 the Dow Jones closed at 990.25.  It might by no means once more shut under 1000 because the Federal Reserve’s new “monetary policy” was one in every of perpetual bull market on the NYSE.  The far proper frequency desk covers this era of market historical past, the place the Dow Jones closed at, or inside -Four.999% of a brand new all-time excessive 50.57% of its 9,158 day by day closings because it soared to 26,838 on October third of this yr.

Seeing each different day a brand new all-time excessive or inside -Four.999% of 1 for a thirty-six yr interval appears a bit excessive, however as seen under it will get worse.

These two frequency tables cowl the Roaring 1920s Bull Market and the Publish Credit score Disaster market advance.  When you take a look at their complete days they’re roughly the identical.  However observe in the 1920s the NYSE additionally traded on Saturdays.  So on a yearly foundation the 1920s knowledge occurred in eight years whereas the publish credit-crisis advance has gone on now for nearly ten years.

As soon as once more we take a look at the highest two rows of the tables, the place in the bull market of the 1920s a tremendous 67.47% of the two,382 day by day closings have been new all-time highs, or inside -Four.999% of 1. 

The Roaring 1920s Bull Market was an inflationary-market mania.  And till Dr. Bernanke started reflating market valuations in the wake of the sub-prime mortgage debacle together with his three bouts of QE, no different interval of market historical past got here near its inflationary excesses. 

However notice how since 09 March 2009, to this week’s closing, the Dow Jones closed at a brand new all-time excessive, or inside -Four.999% of 1 for an astounding 78.41% of those 2,464 every day closings. 

I’m speechless, not only for the Frankenstein’s Monster high quality of the present bubble the FOMC has inflated into the inventory market, however on the complete ignorance of its existence by not solely the general public but in addition by the main-stream monetary media.

Individuals comply with the main-stream monetary media for market insights.  However in fact the MSM is simply the prepared device of our well-entrenched institution that cares nothing about how the typical investor prospers in the years to return.

Right here’s an eight minute video from Jimmy Dore, a leftist social commentator who I take pleasure in waiting for his humor and candor.   Jimmy discovered a must-see video on the MSM’s protection of The Trump Administration pending downfall.  Like me, I think my readers will cross it alongside to others after viewing it.

After which there’s this from USA At present, a MSM outlet whose editorial employees’s obsession with the destruction of Donald Trump has turn out to be all consuming. 

The level of those hyperlinks is that someday in unknown future it can turn out to be painfully obvious that the main-stream monetary media served its shoppers of data no higher than the political analysts seen above.

There’s extra info to be gleamed from these frequency distribution tables above.  Wanting on the Roaring 1920s desk, we see that from September 1921 to September 1929 the Dow Jones noticed no correction that broke into the BEV -20% row.  That’s a very long time for a serious advance to not see a correction of 20%; and the identical continues to be true for our publish credit-crisis advance. 

Now take a look at the BEV -15% rows.  Our advance noticed solely eight every day closings that declined greater than 15% from an all-time excessive since March 2009.  The 1920s advance noticed 92 every day closings of 15% or higher.

A case could be made how our publish March 2009 advance is definitely a higher market mania than seen by the Dow Jones in the 1920s, and I consider this to be so.  The main distinction between the 1920s and our inflationary advance is the 1920’s bulls have been in the primary retail buyers utilizing margin debt to leverage up market valuations in the Dow Jones.

The huge bulls in the publish March 2009 advance weren’t retail buyers, however the precise central bankers themselves, like Physician Bernanke.  As Fed chairman Physician Bernanke not solely reduce his Fed Funds right down to zero for seven years, but in addition used the Federal Reserve’s stability sheet for hare-brain schemes akin to Quantitative Easings to flood the market with financial inflation and his Operation Twist to ratchet down long run bond yields. 

The following chart plots the Fed’s stability sheet since 1953.  It’s not troublesome figuring out exactly when Physician Bernanke dictated “monetary policy” on the Federal Reserve.

Physician Bernanke, the large man on campus at Princeton College’s Economics Division, who on the backside of the high-tech bear market in November 2002 proudly said the next:

“The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.”

– Benjamin Bernanke, Federal Reserve Governor – November 2002

In different phrases: deflation in the monetary markets ain’t going to occur if I ever develop into Fed Chairman!

Alan Greenspan was Fed Chairman on the time.  However everybody in the main-stream monetary media knew somebody as devoted to the destruction of the American greenback as a monetary asset as Physician Bernanke proved available to be Greenspan’s successor.  And for as soon as, the main-stream monetary media was right.

Let’s check out the Dow Jones in the chart under, together with the above two frequency distribution tables for the Roaring 1920s and our publish credit-crisis advance.

Within the chart’s insert we see the 1920s bull market, an advance free from 20% corrections for eight years.  The first 20% correction of the 1920s started on Thursday, 24 October 1929 because the Dow Jones closed 21.43% from its final all-time excessive of 381.17 seen on 03 September 1929.  As buying and selling opened on the next Monday all hell broke unfastened on Wall Road because the Dow Jones dropped 23% by final Tuesday’s shut. 

The Nice Melancholy crash had begun days after the Dow Jones noticed its first 20% decline from an all-time excessive since 1921.

Right here’s a sidebar for the above chart; the pink star fixes when Alan Greenspan turn out to be Fed Chairman in 1987.  Physician Bernanke started chairing the Fed in March 2006.  These two Fed Chairmen are chargeable for what you see above.

That central bankers themselves at the moment are the most important bulls in the market, what is going to occur when the Dow Jones sees its first 20% correction since 9 March 2009?  Just like the retail buyers of 1929, will these central bankers too run for the exits solely 5 days later?

I doubt it, however then once more they’ve already made the choice to crash this market.  The Fed’s program of rising rates of interest PLUS the contraction of their stability sheet, very evident two charts up ensures a crash someday in the longer term.  This shall be a market occasion the MSM should blame on somebody, however somebody aside from the Federal Reserve or Wall Road’s corrupt institution.

The MSM shall be greater than prepared to help the FOMC in fixing the duty for a crashing market on President Trump, who has completely nothing to do with inflating this monster bubble in the monetary markets.  The monetary institution hates Trump as a lot as any reporter you noticed in that Jimmy Dore video, and fairly probably extra.  They know Trump is extra more likely to jail them, than bail them out as Obama did in 2009-11.

Whether or not or not the investing public continues believing the nonsense day by day reported by the MSM; when the inflationary bubble at present residing in most individuals funding portfolios and pension funds begins to deflate in earnest, the consequences of collapsing asset valuation will probably be widespread and devastating.  The solely exception to that may probably show to be valuable metals belongings: gold and silver bullion and valuable metals miners.

So, how goes gold and silver for the week? 

A fast research of the plots under exhibits the advances in the previous financial metals stay intact.  Gold is progressing in the direction of the 1.10 line.  Silver continues to be struggling to interrupt above its Zero.95 line because it has since August.  When that’s completed, hopefully we will then overlook about silver’s Zero.90 line as soon as and for all.

All and all there isn’t a lot to remark upon the previous financial metals as 2018 attracts to an in depth. 

But when historical past is any information, and it often is, when the monetary markets come beneath the grip of deflation someday in the longer term, we should always anticipate some beautiful advances in the gold and silver plots above.

Till then, the Dow Jones noticed some pleasure this week, its eleventh day of utmost volatility on Friday the 14th, as seen in the day by day bar chart under. 

As famous many occasions earlier than, market motion publish October 3rdis horrible. 

With eleven Dow Jones 2% days since October 10th, together with a couple of days of utmost volatility from final February which might be turning into very stale in the Dow’s 200 rely, the rely closed the week at 14 in the chart under. 

The larger the rely climbs, the more durable it is going to be for the “policy makers” to maintain the inventory market from deflating.

The Dow Jones and its step sum under have gotten fascinating. 

In a step sum chart the worth plot represents market actuality whereas the step sum plot market expectations.  Sometimes these two plots development up and down collectively – however not all the time.  Once they decouple a step sum field is shaped, and under we see the worth plot for the Dow Jones deflating because the Dow’s step sum (market sentiment) ignores this more and more painful reality of life.

I haven’t declared this decoupling of those two plots a Bear Field simply but.  I like to permit the decoupling of those plots to proceed for a couple of months earlier than I do. 

However proper now it seems the Dow Jones is heading right into a interval of deflation, whereas the bulls stay in denial, hoping the market will as soon as once more flip their method. 

If a Bear Field is in reality forming, historical past suggests that it’ll take plenty of ache earlier than the bulls see the error of their bullish stubbornness.

Right here’s gold and its step sum.  Not since gold shaped a Bull Field that failed in 2016 have these two plots decoupled.  And seeing them decouple for a number of days or perhaps weeks doesn’t rely.  A real step sum field goes on for months, and typically for years.

However as for now, market actuality (Blue Worth Plot) is bullish in the gold market, whereas market expectations (Purple Step Sum Plot) are guardedly bullish.  Mid-month December 2018; that’s in all probability a reasonably good evaluation of the gold market, and it ought to stay that approach till the monetary markets start to deflate in a serious style.

Listed here are the worth and step sum tables for gold and the Dow Jones.  These tables are helpful to review together with their step sum charts above.  In gold’s desk we see the worth of gold rising since early November, gaining about $30 on a rise of 1 in its step sum on Friday’s shut, although final Friday its step sum was 245.

These are all tedious particulars in a market not in a rush to do something thrilling to the up or draw back.  And I anticipate this can proceed being the case for gold till we see every day volatility in the gold market start to surge upwards from its present Zero.44% in its 200 Day M/A. 

In contrast to the Dow Jones – gold and silver bull markets LOVE BIG DAILY VOLATILITY! 

Days of utmost volatility for gold are +/- Three% days, whereas for silver it takes a +/- 5% day by day transfer to supply an excessive market occasion.  The final time gold noticed an excessive day was on 04 October 2016, a -Three.30% day, and silver’s final excessive day was on 11 November 2016, a -6.66% day.  Each of lately have been over two years in the past, two years of quiet every day buying and selling that did little for us bulls in the gold and silver markets.

However you simply wait.  The day is coming when the gold and silver markets will as soon as once more see common every day strikes of properly over Three% and 5% as they resume their market advances, as deflation in monetary market belongings reminiscent of shares and bonds encourage worry and loathing in the hearts of their house owners.

The state of affairs over on the Dow Jones aspect of the graphic above is totally totally different.  We will see the event of a bear field for the Dow Jones.

Since November ninth the Dow Jones has misplaced over 2000 factors, but its step sum is little modified.

And a few analyst predict a 10% rally into yr’s finish.

By Mark Lundeen 

Paul Ebeling, Editor 

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Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in numerous fields of data. Sample Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Overseas Trade and writer of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Main Market Indices™, a extremely regarded, weekly monetary market letter, he’s additionally a thinker, issuing insights on a variety of topics to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. A world viewers of opinion makers, enterprise leaders, and international organizations acknowledges Ebeling as an professional.