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AP FACT CHECK: On break, no break by Trump in twisting facts

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Associated Press Photo

On this Nov. 22, 2018, photograph, President Donald Trump speaks with reporters at his Mar-a-Lago property in Palm Seashore, Fla. (AP Photograph/Susan Walsh)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Displaying a skinny grasp of science, President Donald Trump questioned the truth of worldwide warming as a result of it was chilly outdoors. Then got here a federal report laying out the extreme penalties of local weather change and rebutting the notion that a frigid snap means it isn’t occurring.

Sizing up the U.S.-Mexico border, Trump declared he had closed it this previous week and mandated that “no one’s coming in.” Truly, one crossing from Mexico, amongst dozens that stayed open, was partially closed earlier than rush hour and pedestrians nonetheless had entry to the U.S. throughout that point.

Earlier than and all through his Thanksgiving trip in Florida, Trump took no vacation from twisting facts throughout a broad entrance — on Saudi Arabia, the current election and the 2001 terrorist assaults among the many subjects.

A take a look at a few of his rhetoric:

CLIMATE

TRUMP: “This is the coldest weather in the history of the Thanksgiving Day Parade in NYC, and one of the coldest Thanksgivings on record!” — tweet Thursday.

TRUMP: “Brutal and Extended Cold Blast could shatter ALL RECORDS – Whatever happened to Global Warming?” — tweet Wednesday.

THE FACTS: Trump is conflating climate and local weather. Climate is like temper, which modifications every day. Local weather is like character, which is long run.

The local weather is warming, which nonetheless permits for report chilly spells.

On Friday, the White Home produced the Nationwide Local weather Evaluation by scientists from 13 Trump administration businesses and out of doors scientists. It amounted to a slap in the face for many who doubt the local weather is altering.

“Climate change is transforming where and how we live and presents growing challenges to human health and quality of life, the economy, and the natural systems that support us,” the report says. It particulars how international warming from the burning of coal, oil and fuel is hurting every area of U.S. and totally different sectors of the financial system. The report additionally tasks elevated deaths and illness.

The White Home report swept apart the thought, already discredited, that a specific plunge in temperatures can forged uncertainty on whether or not Earth is warming. It says greater than 90 % of present warming is induced by people: “There are no credible alternative human or natural explanations supported by the observational evidence.”

“Over shorter timescales and smaller geographic regions, the influence of natural variability can be larger than the influence of human activity,” the report says. “Over climate timescales of multiple decades, however, global temperature continues to steadily increase.”

In different phrases, there are chilly days in a warming local weather.

The federal local weather evaluation is remitted by regulation each few years.

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IMMIGRATION

TRUMP: “Two days ago, we closed the border. We actually just closed it. We’re saying, nobody is coming in, because it was out of control.” — remarks to reporters Thursday.

THE FACTS: By no means did he seal the border.

On Monday, the U.S. closed northbound visitors lanes for a couple of hours on the San Ysidro, California, crossing to put in new limitations. It’s the busiest of greater than 40 U.S.-Mexico crossings. That work was accomplished and the lanes reopened earlier than the morning rush of commerce and commuters who work legally in the U.S. Officers additionally closed one pedestrian crossing facility at San Ysidro and left the opposite open, so it’s not true that everybody was blocked from coming in, even at that one crossing. U.S. authorities acted out of concern that migrants gathered on the Mexican aspect may bolt for the U.S.

Trump is threatening to seal the border if Mexico doesn’t correctly “control” individuals making an attempt to get into the U.S. He claimed “I’ve already shut it down, for short periods.” When pressed about whether or not he meant solely that one border crossing, he stated: “No, no. Yeah. I’ve already shut down parts of the border.”

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THE COURTS

TRUMP: “Justice Roberts can say what he wants, but the 9th Circuit is a complete & total disaster. It is out of control, has a horrible reputation, is overturned more than any Circuit in the Country, 79%, & is used to get an almost guaranteed result.” — tweet Thursday.

TRUMP: “It would be great if the 9th Circuit was indeed an “independent judiciary,” however whether it is why … are so are so many opposing view (on Border and Security) instances filed there, and why are an enormous variety of these instances overturned. Please research the numbers, they’re surprising.” — tweets Wednesday.

THE FACTS: Trump is incorrect in suggesting that rulings by the ninth U.S. Circuit Courtroom of Appeals in San Francisco are reversed by the Supreme Courtroom extra incessantly than these of some other federal appeals courtroom. His description of the “shocking” variety of overturned instances in the ninth Circuit belies the character of the appeals system.

When the Supreme Courtroom hears a case, it’s extra more likely to overturn it than not. It does so about two-thirds of the time.

Within the final time period, the Supreme Courtroom overturned 100 % of the choices of the first Circuit in Boston, the third Circuit in Philadelphia and the sixth Circuit in Cincinnati. For the ninth Circuit, 86 % have been overturned.

Over the previous 5 years, the Supreme Courtroom overturned a larger proportion of rulings from the third Circuit (92.three %), the sixth Circuit (85.1 %) and the Atlanta-based 11th Circuit (81.eight %) than from the ninth (77.four %), in response to The Related Press’ evaluation of statistics from the authorized web site Scotusblog.

The ninth is by far the most important of the 13 federal courts of appeals, masking Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon and Washington. That signifies that in uncooked numbers, extra instances are heard and reversed from the ninth yr in and yr out. However that doesn’t make it probably the most ceaselessly overturned.

On Monday, U.S. District Decide Jon Tigar, who’d been nominated by Democratic President Barack Obama, briefly barred the Trump administration from refusing asylum to immigrants who cross the southern border illegally. That set off Trump’s ire. Any attraction is more likely to go to the ninth Circuit.

Trump’s tweets took challenge with an uncommon rebuke from the U.S. chief justice, John Roberts. Roberts spoke up for the independence of the judiciary after Trump branded Tigar an “Obama judge” and stated “We do not have Obama judges or Trump judges, Bush judges or Clinton judges.”

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THE ELECTION

TRUMP, on his influence on the midterm elections: “Look at Florida. I went down to Florida. Rick Scott won and he won by a lot. I don’t know what happened to all those votes that disappeared at the very end. And if I didn’t put a spotlight on that election before it got down to the 12,500 votes, he would’ve lost that election, OK? … They would have taken that election away from him.” — interview with “Fox News Sunday.”

THE FACTS: Trump is exaggerating the vote margin of Scott’s victory as being “a lot” and suggesting with out proof that his personal efforts prevented Democrats from partaking in voter fraud.

Scott, Florida’s Republican governor, edged out Democratic Sen. Invoice Nelson in the closest Senate race in the nation in the midterm elections — by a margin of 10,033 votes, or zero.12 proportion factors. It additionally was the closest Senate race in Florida since no less than 1978, in response to the Florida’s Division of Elections web site. It required two recounts — by machine and by hand — as mandated by state regulation because of the razor-thin margins.

Trump asserts with out proof that the eye he delivered to the Senate race prevented Democrats from “taking” that election from Scott, hinting at voter fraud by suggesting votes “disappeared at the very end.”

Regardless of Trump’s repeated claims after the Nov. 6 election of Florida races being probably “stolen,” the state businesses charged with investigating potential fraud have stated no credible allegations exist. It’s not unusual for vote tallies to vary in the times after Election Day as native officers course of remaining mailed and provisional ballots. In Florida, Scott noticed a few of his lead dwindle after the Democratic strongholds of Palm Seashore and Broward counties continued to rely votes.

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SYRIA

TRUMP: “The country of Iran, as an example, is responsible for a bloody proxy war against Saudi Arabia in Yemen, trying to destabilize Iraq’s fragile attempt at democracy, supporting the terror group Hezbollah in Lebanon, propping up dictator Bashar Assad in Syria (who has killed millions of his own citizens), and much more.” — assertion Tuesday.

THE FACTS: He’s inflating the already staggering variety of Syrians killed in greater than seven years of civil conflict. Syrian authorities forces, led by President Bashar Assad and backed by Russia and Iran, have retaken a lot of the territory rebels seized throughout a conflict that has killed almost 500,000 individuals, in accordance with estimates by United Nations and human rights teams.

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SAUDI ARABIA

TRUMP: “After my heavily negotiated trip to Saudi Arabia last year, the Kingdom agreed to spend and invest $450 billion in the United States. This is a record amount of money. It will create hundreds of thousands of jobs, tremendous economic development, and much additional wealth for the United States. Of the $450 billion, $110 billion will be spent on the purchase of military equipment from Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and many other great U.S. defense contractors. If we foolishly cancel these contracts, Russia and China would be the enormous beneficiaries — and very happy to acquire all of this newfound business.” — assertion Tuesday.

THE FACTS: He’s drastically overstating the worth of anticipated Saudi investments in the U.S.

The arms package deal, partly negotiated underneath the Obama administration, mixes previous offers, some new enterprise and potential purchases that haven’t been labored out.

The Pentagon stated final month that Saudi Arabia had signed “letters of offer and acceptance” for less than $14.5 billion in army purchases and confirmed Tuesday that nothing additional has reached that stage.

These letters, issued after the U.S. authorities approves a proposed arms sale, specify its phrases. A lot of that $14.5 billion includes a missile protection system, a contract that seems to have superior greater than different vital investments however not been accomplished.

Furthermore, the State Division estimated final yr that if the complete $110 billion in potential arms enterprise is fulfilled, it might find yourself “potentially supporting tens of thousands of new jobs in the United States.” That’s a far cry from the 500,000 to 600,000 jobs that Trump has stated the arms deal is value.

Particulars of the package deal have been sketchy, with no public breakdown of precisely what was being provided on the market and for a way a lot. The federal government’s Congressional Analysis Service has described the package deal as a mixture of gross sales that have been proposed by President Barack Obama and mentioned with Congress and new gross sales nonetheless being developed.

In the meantime, there was no verification from both nation that “the Kingdom agreed to spend and invest $450 billion in the United States,” as Trump put it in his assertion. White Home spokeswoman Lindsay Walters didn’t reply to a request to elucidate the determine.

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TRUMP: “Oil prices getting lower. Great! Like a big Tax Cut for America and the World. Enjoy! $54, was just $82. Thank you to Saudi Arabia, but let’s go lower!” — tweet Wednesday.

THE FACTS: Merely thanking Saudi Arabia for decrease oil costs is a gross oversimplification. Oil costs, which peaked Oct. three, have been falling on the belief that U.S. sanctions towards Iran wouldn’t create a scarcity and on worry that slower financial progress internationally will depress power demand.

Though the U.S. is now the world’s largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia stays the most important exporter, and as a so-called swing producer with the power to regulate manufacturing up or down comparatively shortly, it could certainly affect the worth of crude. However the market is way extra complicated than Trump suggests. Canada is definitely the main supply of U.S. oil imports, for instance, with Saudi Arabia second.

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TRUMP: “Saudi Arabia would gladly withdraw from Yemen if the Iranians would agree to leave. They would immediately provide desperately needed humanitarian assistance.” — assertion Tuesday.

THE FACTS: This seemingly benign view of Saudi intentions in Yemen doesn’t sq. with actuality on the bottom. A Saudi-led blockade is at the least partly liable for widespread hunger in a rustic the place three quarters of the inhabitants wants life-saving help. It’s the world’s worst humanitarian disaster. The U.S. has scaled again help for the Saudi-led coalition preventing Iranian-backed rebels and is urgent for a cease-fire.

The worldwide assist group Save the Youngsters estimated Wednesday that 85,000 Yemeni youngsters youthful than 5 have died of starvation and illness since civil struggle broke out in 2015. The United Nations says greater than 1.three million Yemeni youngsters have suffered from extreme acute malnutrition because the coalition went to warfare towards Houthi rebels.

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TERRORISM

TRUMP: “Of course we should have captured Osama Bin Laden long before we did. I pointed him out in my book just BEFORE the attack on the World Trade Center. President Clinton famously missed his shot. We paid Pakistan Billions of Dollars & they never told us he was living there. Fools!” — tweet Monday.

THE FACTS: There was nothing unique or clairvoyant in the reference to bin Laden in Trump’s 2000 guide. As a part of his criticism of what he thought-about Invoice Clinton’s haphazard strategy to U.S. safety as president, his ebook said: “One day we’re told that a shadowy figure with no fixed address named Osama bin Laden is public enemy Number One, and U.S. jetfighters lay waste to his camp in Afghanistan. He escapes back under some rock, and a few news cycles later it’s on to a new enemy and new crisis.”

Trump’s guide didn’t name for additional U.S. motion towards bin Laden or al-Qaida to comply with up on assaults Clinton ordered in 1998 in Afghanistan and Sudan after al-Qaida bombed the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The U.S. assaults have been meant to disrupt bin Laden’s community and destroy a few of al-Qaida’s infrastructure, reminiscent of a manufacturing unit in Sudan related to the manufacturing of a nerve fuel ingredient. They “missed” in the sense that bin Laden was not killed in them, and al-Qaida was capable of pull off 9/11 three years later.

In passages on terrorism, Trump’s guide appropriately predicted that the U.S. was liable to a terrorist assault that might make the 1993 World Commerce Middle bombing pale by comparability. That was a widespread concern on the time, as Trump prompt in stating “no sensible analyst rejects this possibility.” Trump didn’t explicitly tie that menace to al-Qaida and thought an assault may come via using a miniaturized weapon of mass destruction, like a nuclear gadget in a suitcase or anthrax.

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Related Press writers Seth Borenstein, Robert Burns and Josh Boak in Washington, Jill Colvin in Palm Seashore, Florida, and David Koenig in Dallas contributed to this report.

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